Forecasting and Projection Methods
Overview
The ALIGN Global Hub utilizes advanced forecasting models to estimate the development timelines and market entry of health products. This document explains the primary methodology used for these projections.
Mao et al. (2025) Methodology
The core of our forecasting engine is based on the methodology published by Mao, Wenhui et al. in The Lancet Global Health (2025). This research analyzed historical data from 59 health products to establish patterns in the development, launch, and scale-up of innovations in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).
Key Projections
1. Date of First Country-Level Launch
- Definition: The projected date when a product is expected to be launched in its first country after receiving regulatory approval.
- Calculation: The model uses median time intervals from historical data, adjusted for the product’s category (e.g., vaccine, drug, diagnostic) and its current development phase.
2. 20% Market Uptake in LMICs
- Definition: The projected date when a product reaches a 20% uptake rate across its target population in LMIC markets.
- Calculation: Based on historical “uptake curves” of similar products, considering factors like financing availability, system readiness, and public health priority.
Reference
Mao, Wenhui et al. Development, launch, and scale-up of health products in low-income and middle-income countries: a retrospective analysis on 59 health products. The Lancet Global Health, Volume 13, Issue 6, e1132 - e1139.
Speedometer Projections
In the Global Hub dashboard, these projections are often displayed alongside a “Speedometer Projection” indicator. This informs the user that the date is an estimate based on the Mao et al. framework, rather than an observed event.
Interpreting Projections
Users should keep in mind:
- Projected timelines are estimates and are subject to change as new data becomes available.
- Projections reflect general historical patterns and may not account for unique challenges or breakthroughs specific to a single product.
- Projections should be used to support strategic planning, but should be interpreted in conjunction with national priorities and system capacity.
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